Who are the NHLs best shutdown centers and why are they so valuable?

Offense reigns supreme in the modern NHL.

Speed and skill are at an all-time high, defensemen are more active offensively, power-play scoring rates have boomed, enhanced stick technology has bolstered the shooting ability of players and referees are calling the rulebook tighter than ever before.

It’s never been harder to defend, which makes high-end shutdown players uniquely valuable. We’ve analyzed some of hockey’s top shutdown defensemen before but who are the league’s best defensive centers?

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We can explore this topic by digging into some data. In fact, we need a combination of numbers to filter through the league and find our gems. Why? Well, we can’t solely rely on something like goals against, for example, because it’s too blunt of an instrument — it doesn’t account for the other four players that the center shares the ice with or goaltending quality. But it’s obviously still a really important measuring point, so the goal is to find a variety of metrics like this that can be useful and complement each other.

I started the exercise by using an initial filter for the following criteria since the 2020-21 season.

• Plays an average of at least 15 minutes per game
• Five-on-five goals-against rate below the league average for forwards of 2.53 (Preventing goals is the ultimate goal of defense. Goals against can, however, be quite volatile and influenced by luck — some centers prevent shots and scoring chances very well but get punished because their goaltender can’t make a save — so I didn’t want this filter to be too harsh.)
• Matchups around league-average quality or tougher (If you’re a top defensive center you shouldn’t be playing sheltered minutes. I used HockeyViz and PuckIQ’s quality of competition data to measure this)
• Must kill penalties, even if it’s just on a part-time basis (If you don’t ever kill penalties, are you really an elite defensive player?)

After running this filter, we get a refined pool of centers over the last three seasons who play top-nine minutes, are trusted enough to defend top forwards on a regular basis, prevent goals against better than league-average and kill penalties. From here, I decided to use Evolving-Hockey’s Regularized Adjusted Plus-Minus (RAPM) tool to measure defensive impact and rank our pool of centers.

This RAPM tool can identify the players who have the strongest impact on suppressing quality scoring chances through their expected goals model. Most importantly, this tool can level the playing field by giving us a player’s isolated defensive impact after accounting for variables such as teammate quality (who they share the ice with on shifts), opposition quality, zone starts (some players start in the defensive zone more often than others) and more.

There’s no such thing as a perfect all-in-one tool, and RAPM is no different, but in a world where objectively measuring defensive impact can be challenging, this stands out as a useful data point.

Before presenting the results, I want to quickly share a couple of disclaimers:

• We’re ignoring offense and only measuring pure defensive impact. That means if Center A is higher on this list than Center B, it doesn’t necessarily mean Center A is the better overall player.
• We will only be measuring five-on-five impact because it’s nearly impossible to objectively measure penalty-killing ability with publicly available data.
• This is, of course, only an analytical perspective. The numbers obviously can’t capture everything, especially for defense. Because of that, take this article’s findings as a conversation starter, or a list that’s identifying some of the top defensive centers rather than a definitive ranking. You should look at the initial list and then apply your own eye test, context and knowledge — it’s all about how you interpret the data. There will be plenty of quality shutdown centers that don’t land on this list or just missed the cut for one reason or another like Jean Gabriel Pageau and Elias Lindholm.

Without further ado, let’s dive in. The centers on this list will be presented in the order of their RAPM defensive impact.

No.1-5

NHL's Top 5v5 Shutdown Centers (1-5)

Patrice Bergeron is the king of defensive centers. The gap between him and the NHL’s next-best center at suppressing quality chances against is a country mile and explains the absurdly low 1.66 goals against per hour rate when Boston’s No.1 center has stepped on the ice at five-on-five over the last three seasons. He’s on track for his 12th consecutive Selke Trophy nomination (14 years if you expand it to top-five finishes). Bergeron is the front-runner to win the trophy for a sixth time — he already owns the NHL record for most Selke wins since the award was invented in 1977-78.

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Boston deserves credit for the disciplined way they’ve limited Bergeron’s minutes to maximize his elite performance through his age-37 season. Bergeron’s averaged just 11:54 at five-on-five since the 2020-21 season which ranks 245th out of 335 NHL forwards who’ve logged at least 1500 five-on-five minutes. Shaving a couple of minutes per game off from a player’s ice time may not seem like much but the savings add up when you take this approach for nearly a decade.

Joel Eriksson Ek has quietly emerged as one of the NHL’s premier two-way pivots over the last few seasons. There was a long stretch where the GREEF line with Marcus Foligno and Jordan Greenway (who was dealt at the deadline) on his flanks was arguably the best defensive line in all of hockey. That trio dominated all the underlying numbers and controlled nearly 70 percent of goals scored while surrendering just 1.48 goals against per hour over the last three seasons. Recently, the long rangy center has done a stellar job driving the second line alongside Matt Boldy who’s breaking out, and a resurgent Marcus Johansson. He’s hit a career-high 60 points which is an excellent value when you combine that with his elite defensive impact.

J.T. Compher will be a surprising name to many but the closer you watch him, the more you appreciate the details of his game. The 27-year-old pending UFA is speedy and offers a nonstop motor which makes him very disruptive both on the forecheck and stealing pucks on the backcheck. Compher has been on the ice for fewer than 2.00 goals against per hour in four consecutive seasons. Typically that’s been in a third-line role, but Nazem Kadri’s departure has forced Compher into a more prominent role. He’s been successful navigating the higher minutes (averaging 20:23 per game) and tougher matchups (playing the most minutes against elite competition of any Avs forward besides Nathan MacKinnon according to PuckIQ), authoring a breakout performance where he’s not only maintained his excellent defensive numbers, but also chipped in with a career-high 50 points.

For years, players and fans around the league have shouted out Aleksander Barkov as an underrated superstar. The 2021 Selke winner has a massive frame, is excellent at breaking plays up with his stick and has an uncanny ability to anticipate the next play and position himself accordingly.

Anthony Cirelli is one of the unsung heroes in Tampa Bay. He’s played 41.7 percent of his five-on-five minutes against elite players this season, which represents the toughest matchups of any NHL center according to PuckIQ. Cirelli’s heavy two-way burden frees Brayden Point and Nikita Kucherov up to feast on softer competition.

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No.6-10

NHL's Top 5v5 Shutdown Centers (6-10)

The New Jersey Devils are blessed at center ice. Not only are Jack Hughes and Nico Hischier already one of the best one-two punches in the NHL, but they’re both young and locked up to bargain long-term contracts that pay them a combined $15.25 million for years to come. Hischier can drive elite defensive results and has already emerged as a 30-goal scorer and near-point-per-game producer offensively as well.

Jordan Staal is a model of consistency, always just on the outside looking in on the main Selke Trophy race. Staal has only finished top-five in voting once when he was a third-place finalist in 2009-10, but he’s received votes for the award in 14 of his 16 NHL seasons (not including this one). Ryan O’Reilly and Mikael Backlund have established stellar defensive reputations for a long time as well.

Adam Lowry is one of the players who probably flies under the radar in part because defensive specialists don’t get as much recognition compared to two-way stalwarts. Lowry’s been the cog for the Jets’ checking third line, which over the years, has been leaned on heavily.

No.11-15

NHL's Top 5v5 Shutdown Centers (11-15)

Jack Eichel was one of the most surprising names on the list. He’s been tidy over the years in terms of preventing goals against and his isolated impact on limiting quality chances has been strong.

“I think he’s been arguably our best defensive forward in terms of closing in our end, being on time and killing plays,” Bruce Cassidy said to The Athletic colleague Jesse Granger earlier in the season. “He’s bought into what we’re trying to get him to do.”

Eichel’s showing how you can partially deliver staunch defensive results by dominating puck possession in the attacking end.

“He makes the hard things look easy,” Mark Stone added earlier in the season. “He’s using his speed and his body really well. It makes defense easy when you have the puck most of the game. We’re spending most of our shifts in the offensive zone because of the protection of the puck that he has. He shields it so well.”

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Eichel has also killed penalties in a second-unit role for Vegas. I’m not sure his pure defensive ability is quite as impressive as these numbers indicate but it’s a fascinating trend to highlight nonetheless.

William Karlsson won’t ever be the explosive goal scorer that shocked the hockey world with 43 goals in Vegas’ inaugural season again, but he still chews up important minutes as a premier two-way center.

David Kämpf was an excellent pickup for the Leafs in the summer of 2021. Kämpf has almost nothing to offer offensively but he’s elite in his own end and has been a solid third-line center while absorbing slightly tougher than league average matchups. He’s a great bargain at $1.5 million through the end of this season.

There should be zero suspense seeing Anze Kopitar on this list. He’s been an excellent two-way pivot for over 15 years now.

Sean Monahan, on the other hand, was a huge surprise. Early in his career, he was an electric offensive player with shortcomings in his own end. Injuries hampered him and it’s fascinating that as his offense fell off a cliff, he was at least able to mature in terms of his all-around impact. In 2020-21, for instance, Monahan had a miserable offensive year but posted excellent defensive metrics including a sparkling 1.76 goals against per hour rate at five-0n-five.

I don’t buy that Monahan’s this good defensively, and his negative offensive impact significantly undermines his overall value as a player, but he was trending back toward becoming a useful middle-six center for the Canadiens until another injury derailed his season.

No.15-20

NHL's Top 5v5 Shutdown Centers

Phillip Danault should be much higher than where he slots in this exercise. If I was making a subjective ranking of best shutdown centers, he’d easily slot in my top five. How many players can put on this type of defensive masterclass against Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl in the playoffs?

Philip Danault played a combined 8:26 at 5-on-5 head-to-head against the Draisaitl or McDavid line.

EDM managed just 1 shot on goal in that sample — Danault flexing his elite defensive chops once again.

— Harman Dayal (@harmandayal2) May 3, 2022

This is why I said at the start of the article that the data should be a tool to identify which centers are driving strong defensive results rather than a definitive ranking. Danault’s defensive impact here is underrated because the RAPM model assigns a lot of the credit for his elite two-way numbers to a strong offensive impact. That obviously doesn’t show up here since we’re solely measuring defense.

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Anton Lundell is one of the most promising young two-way centers in hockey. He already earned regular penalty-killing minutes as a 20-year-old rookie last season — that type of high trust and confidence says a lot about the all-around maturity of his game. Lundell has run into a sophomore slump offensively but he’ll only become better as he gains more experience.

Roope Hintz dazzles with his incredible speed and rush offensive ability, but he’s really come into his own as a complete, two-way center the last couple of seasons. Hintz could be a future contender for the Selke if he keeps honing in on this side of the game.

Frederick Gaudreau has been solid in his own end, although I think this model’s results are flattering to him. He’s had a notable impact on limiting expected goals against but he hasn’t had the same effect for shots against. Gaudreau’s a responsible defensive piece, an important penalty killer and a fantastic bargain for Minnesota but there are other names that you could argue should bump him off this list.

Vincent Trocheck has been a wonderful second-line signing for the Rangers, with his two-way, all-situations versatility and crucial face-off winning utility.

Quality bottom-six defensive centers that don’t play as much

Some centers are excellent defensively but are black holes offensively. Teams are forced to use these players in bottom-six roles. Most fourth-line centers predominantly play against other teams’ fourth lines but I wanted to highlight a handful of bottom-six centers that are uniquely deployed in secondary matchup roles (matchup difficulty around league average according to HockeyIQ) and deliver staunch defensive results.

Here are some of those names.

Bottom-Six C's w/ impressive defense

Many of these forwards (Luke Glendening, Radek Faksa, Casey Cizikas and Teddy Blueger) are so inept offensively that it wipes out a big chunk of their defensive value.

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Nic Dowd really separates from the pack in this group, however. He’s played a big chunk of his minutes matched up against the opposition’s best players. Dowd has admirably held his own amid that challenging deployment and even chipped in with 13 goals and 25 points.

(Top photo of Patrice Bergeron: Maddie Meyer / Getty Images)

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